Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cristian Garin Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve performance shows Garin winning 45.67% of points, slightly edging Carabelli's 45.64%. Is this minor advantage enough to predict the winner? It indicates a closely matched skill set in this area.
• In return games, Carabelli outperforms Garin by winning 47.17% of opponents' second serve points, compared to Garin's 45.26%. For first serve returns, Carabelli again leads slightly with 28.73% over Garin's 28.36%.
• When under pressure, Carabelli has saved a higher percentage of breakpoints at 53.91%, while Garin has saved 51.86%. Could this be critical in tight situations?
• Overall match performance in the past year shows Garin winning 63.16% of matches, while Carabelli has a 61.84% win rate, indicating a marginal edge for Garin.
• Both players excel on clay, with Garin winning 64% and Carabelli 65% of matches on this surface. However, Garin performs worse on indoor hard courts (34%), and Carabelli struggles significantly on grass (0%).
• At the Challenger/ITF level, Carabelli has a superior win rate of 79.49% compared to Garin's 75%, hinting at a stronger recent form in this context.
• Carabelli has faced tougher opponents with an average rank of 166.84 over the last year, versus Garin's opponents who average 203.25.
• If the match reaches a deciding set, Carabelli is more likely to prevail, having won 71% of such sets recently compared to Garin's 57%.
• Regarding break point conversion, Carabelli is more effective, converting 34.84% of opportunities compared to Garin's 31.96%.

Editorial Prediction (July 15, 2025, UTC):

As we compare Cristian Garin and Camilo Ugo Carabelli, the stats suggest a highly competitive matchup. Both players have demonstrated similar capabilities, particularly noticeable in their recent second serve performances where they are almost neck and neck.

Carabelli has a slight edge when it comes to returning serves and managing break points, indicating a potential advantage in breaking Garin's momentum when it matters most. Additionally, Carabelli's prowess in deciding sets could prove decisive if the match becomes a prolonged battle.

Despite Garin's slightly better win percentage over the past year, Carabelli's ability to save break points and perform against stronger opponents offers him the strategic upper hand. Furthermore, Carabelli's success on clay and in high-stakes situations may tilt the scales further in his favor.

Given the detailed comparisons and trends, Carabelli is marginally more likely to emerge victorious in this upcoming contest.